2025 Japan Cup Preview
- Archie Brookes
- 5 hours ago
- 20 min read
Tokyo’s autumn showpiece has rarely carried this much weight.
On Sunday, November 30, the 45th Japan Cup brings together a field of 19, a world champion raider, two classic-winning three-year-olds, last year’s Derby hero, and a pack of hardened stayers and spoilers. It is the richest turf race on the Japanese calendar, with ¥1.09 billion in the pot and ¥500 million to the winner, but the real prize is status: the right to be called the new king of 2400 metres on firm Japanese turf.
No foreign-trained horse has won this race since Alkaased in 2005. Japan has produced Deep Impact, Gentildonna, Almond Eye, Contrail, Equinox and Do Deuce since then, and the Cup has become a fortress. Europe keeps sending good horses. This time they may have sent a great one.
The stage: Tokyo 2400, racing’s lie detector
The Japan Cup is run over 2400 metres on the outer course at Tokyo, the same trip as the Derby. It is often described by jockeys as the fairest turf test in the world. That does not mean it is forgiving.
Long run to the first turn: The race starts in front of the stands with around 350 metres to the first bend. In theory that blunts any draw bias, but if the pace slackens, wide gates still end up fanned three and four deep, burning energy.
Huge backstretch and sweeping turns: Horses have time to find a rhythm. Tokyo’s bends are drawn long, so good movers can build and maintain speed instead of checking and rebalancing.
The Keyaki landmark: As they swing past the big zelkova tree inside the third turn, the style of race changes. Japanese riders are happy to push the button from 800 out and turn it into a long, sustained spurt rather than a 400‑metre dash.
The “heartbreak hill”: Straightening for home, they immediately climb about two metres over 100. Tired horses are exposed right here. Those that survive the climb then face another 400‑plus metres on near‑concrete fast turf.
In late November the going is usually firm. The C or B course rail setting keeps the surface tight and springy. Horses with an efficient, high‑cadence stride float across it. European mudlarks who love digging into soft ground often feel like their feet are skimming on ice.
Times tell the story. Almond Eye’s 2:20.6 still stands as the world record over 2400 metres. To win this race now you have to both stay and sprint.
History: from foreign raiders to domestic dominance
When the Japan Cup was created in 1981 it was designed as Japan’s international calling card. The first winners told that story clearly: Mairzy Doates from the United States in year one, then horses like John Henry and other international stars coming to collect the yen.
That balance gradually shifted.
1980s-1990s: European Arc winners like Tony Bin and Montjeu added class, but Japanese-trained runners started to hold their own. Katsuragi Ace became the first local winner in 1984 and broke the foreign lock.
2000s: The tide turned. Deep Impact won in 2006, Vodka became the first Japanese filly to win in 2009. Alkaased in 2005 is still the last foreign winner.
2010s-2020s: The race became a coronation ground for the very best locals: dual heroine Gentildonna, Almond Eye twice, Contrail in 2021, Equinox in 2023 (below). Last year Do Deuce bowed out with an emotional farewell win.
That trend looms large over Calandagan as he walks into the same arena. He is good enough to win most Group 1s anywhere. He still has to prove he can win this one.
Conditions and configuration
The 2025 edition has drawn a full field of 18: 17 Japanese-trained horses and one French-trained horse.
Distance: 2400 metres, outer turf, one full lap.
Post time: 15:40 JST.
Weights: 58 kg for older males. The two three-year-old colts and the lone mare carry 56 kg. That 2‑kilo relief is worth around a length and a half over this trip.
Ground: Forecast is for firm turf, ideal for the classic Japanese finishing bursts.
The winner will almost certainly need to run low‑2:22 or better off a strong gallop.
Get my full race analysis, selections, and real-time updates inside the AB Racing Discord. Everything goes there first.
The cast
Here is the full field, grouped by role and realistic chance, with deeper profiles for the major players.
Three‑year‑old colts
Masquerade Ball (Tezuka / Lemaire)
Croix du Nord (Saito / Kitamura)
Top older males
Danon Decile (Yasuda / Tosaki)
Tastiera (Hori / Lane)
Shin Emperor (Yahagi / Sakai)
Durezza (Ozeki / Pouchin)
Justin Palace (Sugiyama / C. Demuro)
International raider
Calandagan (Graffard / Barzalona)
Second Tier / Dark Horses
Admire Terra (Tomomichi / Kawada)
Deep Monster (Ikee / Matsuyama)
Sunrise Earth (Ishizaka / Ikezoe)
Brede Weg (Miyata / Marquand)
Danon Beluga (Hori / D. Sasaki)
Yoho Lake (Tomomichi / M. Iwata)
Struve (Hori / Sugawara)
Likely pace influences / outsiders
Ho O Biscuits (Okumura / Iwata)
Seiun Hades (Hashiguchi / Tsumura)
Cosmo Kuranda (Kato / Tannai)
What follows is the meat of the race: how each of the key runners arrives here, how they are likely to be ridden, and where the fault lines in their profiles sit.
The new star: Masquerade Ball
Masquerade Ball (JPN, 3c)
Duramente - Mask Off (Deep Impact)
Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Weight: 56 kg
Masquerade Ball is the colt the local fans want to see crowned.
His season has been built old‑school: progressive, with proper targets rather than trophy‑hunting. He took the Kyodo News Hai in the spring, then ran a huge second in the Derby behind Croix du Nord from a wide draw that forced him to cover plenty of extra ground. He did not sulk. He came back in the Autumn and blew the older horses away in the Tenno Sho.
That Tenno Sho (Autumn) figure is the reason he is favourite. Sitting just behind the speed, he quickened clear late and clocked a final three furlongs in the low 32s (watch below). Against seasoned older Group 1 horses that is freakish.
His profile for Sunday:
Course: Three wins at Tokyo, all on the left‑handed track. He is balanced and changes leads cleanly.
Trip: Officially unproven at 2400, but his Derby second at this distance says he stays well enough. The question is not stamina, but whether he retains his devastating turn of foot at the end of 2400 at Cup tempo.
Form: Peaking. Since early spring he has finished third in the Satsuki Sho, second in the Derby and then won the Tenno Sho. That is a rock‑solid pattern.
Concerns: The quick four‑week turnaround and the mental side. Tezuka has admitted the short gap between the Tenno Sho and the Cup worries him slightly in terms of how keyed‑up the colt might be.
Tactically, Lemaire will do what Lemaire always does at Tokyo. From a sensible gate he will slide into the second wave, somewhere between eighth and tenth, hunt for cover, and wait. He knows the hill and the straight better than anyone riding. Expect him to delay, then unleash late.
Historically, only one three‑year‑old has won the Japan Cup in the last decade, the freak Almond Eye. Masquerade Ball is being asked to sit at that table. His weight break and his clock figures say he belongs there.
Verdict: Clear top pick among the locals. If he stays, he wins a lot of the time.
The Derby king with something to prove: Croix du Nord
Croix du Nord (JPN, 3c) Kitasan Black - Rising Cross (Cape Cross)
Trainer: Takashi Saito
Jockey: Yuichi Kitamura
Weight: 56 kg
Croix du Nord is the other half of this golden crop.
He was a top‑class juvenile, winning the Hopeful Stakes at 2000 metres, and he built on that in the spring classics: second in the Satsuki Sho, then a decisive victory in the Tokyo Yushun on this exact course and distance, outstaying Masquerade Ball and the rest (below).
Saito then took the ambitious route. Croix du Nord shipped to France, won his prep in the Prix du Prince d’Orange over 2000 m in Paris, beating Daryz, who went on to win the Arc, and then tackled the Arc itself from a wide draw on heavy ground. It was a disaster. He pulled, he floated on the gluey turf, and he finished well down the field.
The key here is why he ran badly:
Ground: He had never seen that sort of heavy going. Everything in his action screams firm turf.
Trip and draw: Wide, over‑raced early, and paid late.
Recovery: He had to travel back and reset. Connections even considered skipping the Japan Cup for the Arima Kinen if he didn't bounce quickly.
Work reports now suggest his energy is back. The yard insists his poor Arc run was circumstance, not talent.
On Sunday, he returns to his happy place: Tokyo 2400 on firm, at level weight with his fellow three‑year‑old.
Expect Kitamura to park him slightly closer than Masquerade Ball, midfield or a shade handier, and try to use his staying power to kick earlier. A strong, even gallop with no stop‑start suits him. So does a race where his ability to sustain pressure from the 800 can grind the sting out of the pure speed horses.
Verdict: Genuine winning chance if the Arc has not left a scar. Temper enthusiasm slightly because of the tough campaign.
The professional: Danon Decile
Danon Decile (JPN, 4h)
Epiphaneia - Top Decile (Congrats)
Trainer: Shogo Yasuda
Jockey: Keita Tosaki
Weight: 58 kg
Danon Decile looks like he has been built by hand for Tokyo 2400.
He was an unfancied Derby winner in 2024 at this course and distance, arriving as the ninth choice in the betting and leaving with a classic on his résumé. Since then he has gone around the world and grown into his frame.
His 2025 season is the core of his case:
G2 at Nakayama (2200 m): Blew away a good field early in the year and showed he still had another level.
Dubai Sheema Classic: Beat Calandagan fair and square over 2410 metres, at level weights, off a true international pace. That is the single most important collateral line in this race.
Juddmonte International at York: Officially a blot on the page, but context matters. He carried more weight than ever before, raced too keenly behind a pacemaker and the sharp 2050 metres did not play to his strengths. Yasuda essentially wrote the run off and left him in England through the hot Japanese summer to keep him fresh.
Back home, his campaign has been spaced sensibly. He comes into the Cup without the wear and tear that some of his rivals carry.
Stylistically, he is a grinder. Tosaki is likely to park him in the front half of the field, perhaps fifth to seventh, and slide him into clear air from the 800. He is not the sort you want to be chasing from behind; he does his best work when winding into a long, unrelenting run.
His positives are straightforward:
Perfect course record at Tokyo 2400.
Proven at the distance in both domestic and international company.
Already has Calandagan’s measure at least once.
His drawbacks are equally simple: in a stop‑start race he can be found wanting for an instant change of gear. If the leaders stack them up and they sprint from the 400, he is in trouble.
Verdict: Rock‑solid top‑three chance. I'd expect him to bounce back from his York performance.
The French tank: Calandagan
Calandagan (IRE, 4g)
Gleneagles - Calayana (Sinndar)
Trainer: Francis‑Henri Graffard
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Weight: 58 kg
Calandagan is the best foreign horse to come for this race in nearly twenty years, and he arrives not just as a sporting challenger but as the centrepiece of a very deliberate financial play.
The championship season
His 2025 body of work reads like a coronation:
Grand Prix de Saint‑Cloud (2400 m): Group 1 breakthrough over 2400, beating older horses and, crucially, triggering Japan Cup bonus eligibility as a winner of a designated race.
King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2400 m): Smashed a top‑class Ascot field, proving he can unleash a long, violent run from midfield. Another designated race, another tick in the JRA’s recruitment box.
Champion Stakes (2000 m): Dropped back to 2000, showed tactical speed and versatility to win again on Champions Day.
Dubai Sheema Classic: Earlier in the year, chased home Danon Decile at Meydan, proving he travels and can cope with a Japanese‑style sustained gallop on fast turf.
He has never finished outside the top three in 13 starts. As a gelding he was never eligible for the Arc, so his whole back half of the year has been built around cashing in wherever the money is highest. In 2025, that is Tokyo.
Connections have done the right things off the track too:
Shipped him in early to Tokyo’s on‑course quarantine, avoiding the old Shiroi disadvantage and letting him work on the actual race surface.
Reported he ate up, trained normally, and held his weight.
Kept Barzalona, who knows his rhythm and quirks, in the saddle.
Why he is really here: the bonus maths
The JRA knows foreign horses are swimming against the tide at Tokyo, so it pays them to come. Literally.
For 2025, any foreign‑trained horse that wins one of a long list of designated world Group 1s unlocks a separate Japan Cup bonus pot. Calandagan has won three of those races. He is not just qualified, he is the poster‑boy for the scheme.
The numbers are outrageous:
Win: Around $3.33 million from the normal winner’s purse, plus a $3 million bonus. Roughly $6.33 million in total.
Second: About $1.33 million in prize money, plus $1.2 million bonus. Around $2.53 million for finishing runner‑up.
Third: About $833,000 in purse, plus $750,000 bonus. Roughly $1.58 million.
Even finishing only 6th to 10th still brings a six‑figure bonus on top of standard prize money.
On top of this, the JRA picks up almost all of the campaign’s running costs: airfreight for the horse, flights and hotels for trainer, jockey and owner, on‑course quarantine, and even detailed medical and travel insurance for the humans involved. From an owner’s perspective, the net cost of running is effectively zero.
For a colt with stallion value, that might still be a marginal call. For a gelding like Calandagan, the calculus is totally different.
A colt with his record would be a $30-50 million stallion prospect and would already be in a breeding shed. Calandagan’s stud value is fixed at zero. Every dollar he will ever make has to come from prize money and appearance cheques. The Japan Cup is therefore not just a big race for him; it is the single most rational cash target on the planet.
If he wins, he banks in two minutes what most high‑class European geldings would struggle to earn across three full seasons. Even a strong second or third makes this trip a better financial decision than staying home and winning another Group 1 in Europe.
The racing problem he still has to solve
The money is real, but the athletic challenge is too.
On paper, he ticks almost every box, but two questions remain.
The final 400 at Tokyo: In Europe, even on firm ground, top races often feature a slower early tempo and a sprint that lasts two or three furlongs. In the Japan Cup, the long spurt from the 800, the uphill pinch and then the flat drag home create a very different shape. Calandagan can rattle off high‑33 closing sectionals. Masquerade Ball has already dipped into the 32s. That is the level of speed he must live with late.
Season length: He has had a long, hard campaign at the very top. One more big run is absolutely within his scope, but travel and a new environment can quietly take the edge off even the fittest athlete.
Tactically, Barzalona’s choices will define his outcome. If he drops too far back and waits for the 300 to move, he will be trying to out‑kick horses whose entire lives have been geared toward that exact scenario on this exact strip of turf. His best chance is to trust the gelding’s stamina, roll earlier from the 600, and turn the last 400 into a test of courage and lungs rather than a pure 400‑metre drag race.
Verdict: A genuine chance to break the drought and make the bonus scheme look like money well spent. Most likely result is a heroic second or third, but if he brings his absolute best and the locals blink, the richest raid in Japan Cup history is in play.
Tastiera: the forgotten Derby winner
Tastiera (JPN, 5h)
Satono Crown - Partitura (Manhattan Cafe)
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 58 kg
Tastiera is an easy horse to underestimate and a dangerous one to ignore.
He won the 2023 Derby, then vanished from the winner’s enclosure for six starts. In that stretch he ran honest races without cutting through at the very top level, and some wrote him off as a horse who had caught the right wave once and never again.
Then came Sha Tin.
The 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Cup over 2000 metres in Hong Kong saw Tastiera travel, relax, and pounce under Damian Lane to finally bag a second Group 1. It proved three things: he can cope with international competition, he still has a turn of foot when ridden correctly, and Lane gets on with him.
Back in Japan, his Tenno Sho run this year looks ugly on paper, but the trainer’s post‑race comments are revealing. Hori blamed tactics, not talent. The pace was sedate, Lane moved too early into the hill, and Tastiera understandably emptied.
Physically, previous airway issues have reportedly been managed. In work he is said to be moving freely and finishing off.
Tactically, expect a total reset from Lane:
No early mid‑race move.
Sit midfield or slightly worse.
Delay his challenge and aim to sync his run with Masquerade Ball and Danon Decile rather than trying to out‑stay the leaders from too far out.
His record at 2400 and beyond is strong. Derby win, second in the Kikuka Sho over 3000. Tokyo suits him, and his stamina allows Lane to commit earlier than the pure sprinters if the race demands it.
Verdict: Live top‑four player at double‑figures. Great each way bet.
Shin Emperor: the armoured enigma
Shin Emperor (JPN, 4h)
Siyouni - Starlet’s Sister (Galileo)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Weight: 58 kg
Shin Emperor comes back to Tokyo a very different animal to the one that dead‑heated for second behind Do Deuce last year.
Then, he almost pinched the Cup on the front by stacking them up to a crawl and kicking. Since then, Yahagi has taken him on a world tour. He ran a disappointing race in the Irish Champion Stakes, before a respiratory scope and bleeding issue forced connections to pull the plug on his Arc bid.
The enforced break might prove a blessing. Reports from the quarantine barns and training track talk of a horse who has grown heavier and stronger, especially through his neck and shoulders. One respected observer likened him to a European “power horse” in a suit of armour.
With that extra bulk comes both upside and risk:
Upside: He can now absorb more pressure and maintain speed for longer.
Risk: On firm Japanese turf, a horse that muscular can pull and over‑race, wasting energy.
Yahagi knows how to bring one back from left‑field to win a major. He will have Shin Emperor fit enough. The rest is down to Sakai’s hands.
Last year he was able to crawl, stack, and sprint. With Sunrise Earth, Ho O Biscuits and others in this field, that script is far harder to repeat. If Shin Emperor gets embroiled in a speed battle early he may be spent by the hill.
Verdict: High‑variance type. Can win if he controls the tempo again. Just as likely to be swamped late.
Durezza: the staying card
Durezza (JPN, 5h)
Duramente - More Than Sacred (More Than Ready)
Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki
Jockey: Alexis Pouchin
Weight: 58 kg
Durezza’s peak came in 2023 when he strung together five wins, capped by the Kikuka Sho over 3000 metres. That run exposed his core skill set: deep stamina and the ability to build through gears.
He brought that staying power to the 2024 Japan Cup and produced a massive run to share second with Shin Emperor. This year he again showed his scope by running third in the Sheema Classic behind Danon Decile and Calandagan.
The downside: he has not won since that 2023 purple patch, and his domestic form this season has been patchy. Eighth in the Kyoto Daishoten last time, carrying extra condition, looked flat, but Ozeki insists that run has brought him on and that his frame is leaner now.
The booking of Alexis Pouchin is fascinating. A fresh set of hands may suit a horse who occasionally takes charge mid‑race. Expect them to try to keep him settled in midfield, then wind him up from the 800, not the 1000.
Verdict: Needs a brutal pace to bring his stamina fully into play. More place than win profile.
Justin Palace: the iron stayer
Justin Palace (JPN, 6h)
Deep Impact - Palace Rumor
Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
Weight: 58 kg
Justin Palace is the known quantity in this field.
He won the Tenno Sho (Spring) over 3200 in 2023 and has since made a living finishing in the frame of elite staying races. Fourth in the 2024 Sheema Classic, third in the Takarazuka Kinen, third again in this year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn) behind Masquerade Ball.
He rarely runs a bad race. He also rarely produces the kind of violent acceleration needed to put a Group 1 to bed.
Demuro rode him into fifth in last year’s Japan Cup and keeps the ride. They will do what they always do: drop into the second half of the field, switch off, and try to out‑stay as many rivals as possible in the last 400.
If the leaders collapse, he can run over the top and sneak into the first three. If the race is controlled, he is more likely to finish fourth to seventh.
Verdict: A solid place chance, but hard to see him winning outright.
Yoho Lake: the phantom contender
Yoho Lake (JPN, 7h)
Deep Impact - Crow Canyon (French Deputy)
Trainer: Yasuo Tomomichi
Jockey: Mirai Iwata
Weight: 58 kg
Yoho Lake is consistently underrated because punters see the seven‑year‑old label and miss how lightly raced he really is.
A 26‑month layoff left him with the physical mileage of a five‑year‑old, and his 2025 form shows he has returned better than ever. He won the Kyoto Kinen, ran a sharp third in the Osaka Hai while clocking a 33.5‑second final three furlongs, and shaped well again in the All Comers. His pedigree - Deep Impact over French Deputy - is tailor‑made for Tokyo 2400, and his Derby run as a three‑year‑old was stronger than it looks on paper.
Mirai Iwata should have him midfield and building early on the rise.
Verdict: He needs firm going, but with that guaranteed, he is one of the most appealing rough chances for the placings and a live inclusion in wider bets.
The rising second wave: Admire Terra & Deep Monster
Admire Terra
Admire Terra (JPN, 4h)
Rey de Oro - Admire Miyabi (Heart's Cry)
Trainer: Yasuo Tomomichi
Jockey: Yuga Kawada
Weight: 58 kg
Admire Terra is a late‑bloomer who has quietly built a proper Tokyo record.
He announced himself by winning the Meguro Kinen over 2500 at Tokyo on Derby day, staying strongly and handling the long straight perfectly. His Kyoto Daishoten fourth on his return from a four‑month break, giving weight, was better than it looks. He was beaten just half a length by Deep Monster and will strip fitter now.
Kawada choosing to ride him is a vote of confidence. Expect him to sit just behind the speed, in the front half, and try to pinch ground saving runs on the rail before peeling out.
Verdict: Genuine top‑six chance if he takes the class rise in his stride.
Deep Monster
Deep Monster (JPN, 7h)
Deep Impact - Sisterly Love (Bellamy Road)
Trainer: Yasutoshi Ikee
Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama
Weight: 58 kg
Deep Monster is the form dark horse.
He finally snapped a two‑year drought by winning the Kyoto Daishoten last start, coming from off the pace to nail Sunrise Earth late. That was his third straight top‑three finish in graded company and suggested everything has finally clicked.
The Kyoto Daishoten has been a golden stepping stone to the Cup multiple times in the last decade. Deep Monster will try to follow that path.
He is a closer who wants tempo and a wide, clean lane late. Matsuyama will likely drop him into the rear third, relax, and then start winding from the 700, hoping for a collapsing speed battle up front.
Verdict: Has the profile to hit the frame at a price if the race turns into a war.
Danon Beluga
Danon Beluga (JPN, 6h)
Heart's Cry - Coasted (Tizway)
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Daisuke Sasaki Weight: 58 kg
Once spoken of in the same breath as Equinox, Danon Beluga has become a puzzle.
His three‑year‑old season was excellent: Kyodo News Hai win, close fourths in both the Satsuki Sho and Derby, and a famous third to Equinox in the 2022 Tenno Sho (Autumn).
Since then, injuries, setbacks and inconsistent form have dulled his shine. He ran a strong third in the Dubai Turf last year, reminding everyone of his engine, but then turned up in the Tenno Sho and finished well down the field. His subsequent efforts in the Japan Cup, Arima Kinen and Niigata Kinen were also underwhelming.
Hori’s decision to stick an inexperienced but hungry rider, Daisaku Sasaki, on him is a bold play. It could spark a fresh approach. It could also backfire in the scrimmage of an 18‑horse Japan Cup field.
Beluga’s best shot is a hard pace and a quiet ride near the tail, followed by one late sweeping charge. If the old fire is still in there, he can pass tired horses quickly.
Verdict: Has lost his way in the past year and would need a serious revival to hit the frame.
The pace brigade and rank outsiders
Ho O Biscuits
Front‑running, honest, and just below Group 1 class. His second in the Mainichi Okan over 1800 at Tokyo after nearly stealing it from the front suggests he will try to lead or sit right behind the leader again. The extra 600 metres and the quality of opposition are major questions.
Sunrise Earth
A Rey de Oro‑sired stayer who won the Hanshin Daishoten over 3000 and then nearly made all in the Kyoto Daishoten. The plan here is obvious: go forward, control if possible, and try to stretch the field.
He has the engine to keep galloping. Tokyo’s long straight will test his resolve but he is unlikely to fold cheaply.
Seiun Hades
Grade 3 winner at 1800-2000 who has reinvented himself as a tough on‑speed horse. He handled firm Tokyo well in the Epsom Cup. He lacks the class of the stars but can help force a genuine tempo if he rolls forward as expected.
Cosmo Kuranda
Lightly accomplished but honest, with a Yayoi Sho win on his CV from last year. Stays fine, not quite fast enough at this level. Likely to sit in the first third and try to hang on for a midfield finish.
Brede Weg
The only mare and a former QEII Cup winner. She gets 56 kilos and the services of Tom Marquand. Visually, her best work has come at 2000-2200, but the weight pull and her past Group 1 turn of foot make her an interesting late‑run candidate for fifth or sixth if the race collapses.
Struve
His recent 5th-place finish in the Copa Republica Argentina (G2) on November 9 was better than it looks. He carried the top weight of 59kg and was beaten a length. In the Japan Cup, he drops to 58kg (Weight-For-Age), giving him a significant physical advantage he didn't have in his trial race. Trainer Noriyuki Hori has targeted this race specifically, using the Copa Republica Argentina to sharpen the horse's fitness without exhausting him.
+25pts profit so far — tracked and verified inside the AB Racing Discord.
Pace map and tactical picture
With several natural leaders, the most likely shape is:
Early: Sunrise Earth, Shin Emperor and Ho O Biscuits all show intent from the gate. Seiun Hades and possibly Struve push up to secure spots. The first 1000 metres goes by in something around 59 seconds, stringing them but not frying them.
Middle: The pace either steadies slightly or stays even. Admire Terra, Danon Decile and Tastiera park behind the lead line. Masquerade Ball, Calandagan and Croix du Nord sit in the midfield wave. Deep Monster, Justin Palace, Struve, Danon Beluga and Brede Weg shape the rear group.
Turn for home: From the Keyaki point, riders start to creep. Shin Emperor may try to increase the heat early again. Sunrise Earth will not want to be shuffled back. Tosaki on Danon Decile slides into the clear and starts that long grind. Lemaire stalks, still waiting. Barzalona has to make a call: go now with Danon Decile or risk giving the locals first run.
Final 400: The hill reveals the truth. Any leader who has over‑done it begins to shorten. This is where Masquerade Ball and Croix du Nord unleash, and where Calandagan must already be in full cry.
In most scenarios, a slow, dawdling Japan Cup is unlikely. Too many connections want a real test for their stayers, and too many forward types naturally roll along.
A strong but even tempo suits Danon Decile, Deep Monster, Justin Palace, and Tastiera. A messy, stacked race that turns into a 400‑metre burn tilts it back toward Masquerade Ball, Brede Weg, and Calandagan.
Verdict
Everything points to the locals again, but this is the first year in a long time where you cannot dismiss the visitor on history alone.
Masquerade Ball
Weight advantage, freakish turn of foot, and a Tokyo record that screams “future champion.” If he relaxes and sees out the trip, he is the most likely winner.
Calandagan
Europe’s Horse of the Year and a proper champion. If any foreigner is going to crack the Japan Cup in this era, it is a horse like this. The history books and the locals might still keep him one rung below the winner, but it would be no surprise if he were to cross the line first.
Danon Decile
The professional. Has already beaten Calandagan, loves Tokyo 2400 and will be in the right spot when it matters. Very hard to knock out of the first three.
Croix du Nord
Derby hero with a cloud from the Arc. If he has truly reset, he can finish higher than this. If the trip has dulled him slightly, a brave but non‑winning run is likely.
Deep Monster / Admire Terra / Shin Emperor
Any of this trio can sneak into the frame if the race tilts toward their particular strengths.