Arc 2025: The Showdown at Longchamp – Glory, Heartbreak, and History on the Line

Sunday, 5 October 2025 · ParisLongchamp · 2400m (1m 4f)

Enable famously held off a fast-finishing Sea Of Class in the 2018 renewal - picture from Getty Images

Why the Arc Stands Alone

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is not simply another stop on the racing calendar; it is widely regarded as the pinnacle of middle-distance turf competition, drawing together the finest horses from Europe, Asia, and beyond. Since its inaugural running in 1920, the Arc has established itself as the defining test of stamina, speed, and tactical brilliance over 2400 metres. Legends such as Sea The Stars (2009), Treve (2013-2014), and Enable (2017-2018) are etched into racing history because of their Arc triumphs. These victories represent not just personal achievement but also the culmination of breeding, training, and strategic excellence.

The human side of the race is no less storied. Frankie Dettori, with six wins, has become synonymous with the Arc’s modern history, while trainer André Fabre, with eight victories, has proven repeatedly that his methods can prepare horses to conquer Europe’s most testing stage. Their records embody the race’s fusion of equine brilliance and human expertise.

Timing adds to the Arc’s importance. Run each October at ParisLongchamp, it closes the European flat season by bringing together Classic-winning 3-year-olds and seasoned older horses. Its outcome shapes stallion fees, mare valuations, and bloodstock markets for decades to come. It also acts as a cultural moment, uniting not only fans of racing but casual sports audiences who recognise the Arc as an event of global significance.

Japan’s Pursuit of the Arc

No storyline has loomed larger in recent decades than Japan’s quest for Arc glory. Despite producing world-class champions, Japan has yet to celebrate an Arc winner. The near misses - El Condor Pasa (1999), Nakayama Festa (2010), and the heartbreak of Orfevre (2012, 2013) - are seared into racing memory. Each failure has only intensified Japan’s drive to conquer Longchamp.

Orfevre (left) famously finished 2nd two years in a row

The Arc holds symbolic weight in Japan, representing both international recognition and the validation of a breeding programme that has advanced remarkably since the 1980s. Winning would crown decades of investment in bloodlines, infrastructure, and training philosophies. The 2025 edition feels particularly significant: with Croix du Nord, Byzantine Dream, and Alohi Alii, Japan sends its deepest team yet, each horse carrying unique strengths and proven adaptability on French soil.

The Longchamp Test

ParisLongchamp’s course is deceptively unforgiving. Horses begin with a demanding climb, testing restraint and stamina early. The descent into the straight tempts premature moves, while the false straight - where horses must change stride before climbing the Grande montée - often separates those with tactical patience from those who falter. The final 400 metres, rising toward the winning post, are brutal for any horse lacking balance or stamina.

Success here is rarely accidental. Inside draws conserve ground, while versatile horses who can handle firm and soft going alike are at an advantage. The Arc is notorious for autumn rains, which can transform the race into a stamina-sapping slog. Winning requires not only speed but also adaptability, composure, and an ability to unleash a decisive acceleration at precisely the right moment.

Records and Dynasties

Dominant owners and breeders have long shaped Arc history. Juddmonte, with its seventh Arc victory courtesy of Bluestocking in 2024, illustrates how dynasties sustain excellence across generations. Sea The Stars, himself an Arc winner, has now produced multiple progeny contesting the race. The continuity of bloodlines - Enable from Nathaniel, Treve from Motivator - underscores how the Arc serves as both proving ground and launchpad for breeding legacies.

Repeat champions also reinforce the race’s difficulty and prestige. Treve’s back-to-back victories and Enable’s dual triumph emphasise how rare it is for a horse to sustain excellence at this demanding level. Few other races worldwide combine this depth of history with immediate impact on the future of the breed.

The 2025 Field

Seventeen horses are expected this year, each bringing different credentials and vulnerabilities. The following profiles outline their form, strengths, and potential pitfalls.

Minnie Hauk (IRE) - 3yo filly, Aidan O’Brien

Unbeaten in 2025, Minnie Hauk swept the English, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks in commanding style. A daughter of Frankel, she combines stamina with turn of foot, and O’Brien describes her as professional and mentally tough. The Arc will be her first race outside Britain and Ireland, so she must adapt to Longchamp’s quirks and potentially softer ground. Yet her perfect season and pedigree position her as one of the leading chances. Odds: ~4/1.

Minnie Hauk has swept all before here this season - picture from focusonracing.com

Aventure (FR) - 4yo filly, Christophe Ferland

Runner-up in last year’s Arc, Aventure has strengthened with maturity. Her Prix Vermeille win confirmed her progression, and she remains France’s clearest hope. By Sea The Stars, she has shown versatility on all types of ground. Ferland has campaigned her with patience, aiming her squarely at this day. Aventure requires cover during the race and a strong pace to set up her closing run. If she secures a favourable draw, she could easily reverse last year’s result. Odds: ~4/1.

Los Angeles (IRE) - 4yo colt, Aidan O’Brien

Placed third in the 2024 Arc, Los Angeles began 2025 brightly with a Tattersalls Gold Cup win. A dip in midsummer form raised doubts, but his fourth in the Prix Foy signalled recovery. By Camelot, he thrives on soft going and has the scope to deliver a career-best in testing autumn conditions. O’Brien describes him as a “big powerhouse,” suggesting he is built for a battle of stamina. Odds: ~33/1.

Croix du Nord (JPN) - 3yo colt, Takashi Saito

The Japanese Derby winner, Croix du Nord confirmed his quality when defeating French colt Daryz in the Prix du Prince d’Orange. By Kitasan Black and out of the British-trained mare Rising Cross, he blends Japanese stamina with European toughness. His record - five wins and one second from six starts - attests to his consistency. Racing prominently, he grinds down rivals with relentless galloping. His victory at Longchamp proved he can adapt to softer turf, a frequent stumbling block for Japanese horses. Japanese fans view him as their strongest hope since Orfevre, and his tactical style suggests he could dictate terms if the race unfolds to suit him. Odds: ~8/1.

Croix du Nord has proven himself to be one of this season's standout colts - picture from netkeiba.com

Byzantine Dream (JPN) - 4yo colt, Tomoyasu Sakaguchi

Byzantine Dream stamped his authority in the Prix Foy, displaying the late surge that defines his racing style. Earlier in the year, he nearly captured the Tenno Sho (Spring) over 3200m and proved his international quality with a win in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Turf Handicap. By Epiphaneia, sire of the Triple Crown filly Daring Tact, he embodies stamina and closing power. His adaptability across distances and conditions suggests he can thrive in the Arc’s demanding rhythm. With Oisin Murphy booked, his connections believe he is peaking at precisely the right time. Japanese supporters view him as one of the most likely horses to finally break the Arc curse, but he wouldn't want the ground to soften. Odds: ~9/1.

Alohi Alii (JPN) - 3yo colt, Hiroyasu Tanaka

Lightly regarded early in the season, Alohi Alii has flourished since arriving in France. His Prix Guillaume d’Ornano win at Deauville revealed startling improvement, defeating seasoned rivals with Christophe Lemaire aboard. By Duramente out of an Orfevre mare, his pedigree connects him directly to past Japanese near-misses in the Arc, fuelling hopes of redemption. His style is versatile: he can settle near the front and quicken, or stalk the pace if necessary. Though still relatively inexperienced, he seems to be developing rapidly and could represent the surprise package of the Japanese trio. Odds: ~12/1.

Daryz (FR) - 3yo colt, Francis-Henri Graffard

An Aga Khan homebred, Daryz was unbeaten until finishing last in a messy Juddmonte International, before being narrowly denied by Croix du Nord. By Sea The Stars, he carries proven Arc bloodlines. His strong finish in the Prix du Prince d’Orange suggested that 2400m will be within reach, despite it being his first attempt at the trip. His lightly raced profile indicates further progress is likely. Odds: ~14/1.

Gezora (FR) - 3yo filly, Francis-Henri Graffard

Winner of the Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane, Gezora earned an Arc Wildcard. By Almanzor, she inherits both turn of foot and Classic stamina. Trainer Graffard calls her one of his best fillies to date, and her acceleration recalls Treve’s Diane-to-Arc trajectory. Still lightly raced, she enters fresh, with the 3yo filly allowance boosting her chances. Odds: ~16/1.

Quisisana (FR) - 5yo mare, Francis-Henri Graffard

Qualifying via the Prix Jean Romanet, Quisisana is among the older entrants. By Le Havre, she handles soft ground well and stays the trip. Though needing to post a career best, she represents the strength and consistency of one of France’s major stables and could run above her odds with a strong pace to chase. Odds: ~33/1.

Sosie (IRE) - 4yo colt, Andre Fabre

By Sea The Stars, Sosie boasts both pedigree and performance. A Group 1 winner in the Prix Ganay and fourth in last year’s Arc, he prepped with a close second in the Prix Foy. Maxime Guyon believes good-to-soft ground will suit him better than the softer surface of 2024. Under Fabre’s guidance, he remains a live contender for France. Odds: ~9/1.

Sosie has a standout chance for Andre Fabre

Cualificar (FR) - 3yo colt, Andre Fabre

Runner-up in the French Derby, Cualificar produced a sparkling late run to win the Prix Niel. By Lope de Vega and representing Godolphin, he has the profile of a colt ready to step into the highest echelon. His 3yo weight allowance enhances his chances, and William Buick’s confidence in his acceleration makes him a potential dark horse. Odds: ~12/1.

Kalpana (GB) - 4yo filly, Andrew Balding

Kalpana’s record includes a Group 1 Champion Fillies & Mares win at Ascot and a strong second in the King George. Though defeated in the September Stakes, her overall form remains consistent. Trained with the Arc as her season’s goal, she represents Juddmonte’s hopes of consecutive Arc wins. Odds: ~10/1.

Giavellotto (ITY) - 6yo horse, Marco Botti

A rare older runner, Giavellotto has travelled globally, winning the Yorkshire Cup and Hong Kong Vase. While six-year-olds seldom succeed in the Arc, his recent win over Kalpana in the September Stakes demonstrates current form. Seasoned and resilient, he represents an interesting outsider. Odds: ~25/1.

Estrange (GB) - 4yo filly, David O’Meara

Estrange’s rise has been swift: after winning her maiden, she immediately stepped up to Listed company on her second start and has since advanced to Group 1 contention within a year. Her Lancashire Oaks victory and runner-up finish to Minnie Hauk in the Yorkshire Oaks highlight her upward trajectory. Particularly effective on soft ground, she could surprise if conditions favour stamina. Odds: ~20/1.

Estrange is a fascinating contender if she were to run, but needs soft ground - picture from Martin Rickett

White Birch (IRE) - 5yo horse, John J. Murphy

A Group 1 winner in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, White Birch thrives on rain-softened ground. Lightly campaigned this season, he represents the dreams of a smaller Irish stable. Should Paris see significant rainfall, his proven stamina could bring him into the frame. Odds: ~40/1.

Leffard (FR) - 3yo colt, Jean-Claude Rouget

Winner of the Grand Prix de Paris, Leffard embodies both promise and inconsistency. By Le Havre, he carries sentimental significance for his connections. Rouget has prepared him carefully, aiming for freshness. On his best form, he is a contender capable of challenging more fancied rivals. Odds: ~50/1.

Arrow Eagle (FR) - 4yo colt, Jean-Claude Rouget

Half-brother to 2024 Arc hero Ace Impact, Arrow Eagle has won the Grand Prix de Chantilly and performed credibly in the Prix Foy. While yet to score at Group 1 level, his stamina and fighting qualities could see him exceed expectations. Odds: ~66/1.

Hotazhell (IRE) - 3yo colt, Jessica Harrington

Winner of the Futurity Trophy at two, Hotazhell has faced setbacks but retains toughness. His stamina for 2400m remains in doubt, yet his speed ensures he could influence race tactics. Likely to be among the early pace, his presence could shape the tempo and open opportunities for closers. Odds: ~66/1.

Race Factors: Ground, Draw, and Pace

Ground: Forecast good-to-soft. Rain would benefit Los Angeles, Aventure, Estrange, and White Birch. Firmer conditions favour Minnie Hauk, Croix du Nord, and Byzantine Dream.

Draw: Inside stalls typically help those with tactical speed. Aventure and Cualificar could gain most if drawn low.

Pace: Hotazhell could lead with Los Angeles and Arrow Eagle pressing, a strong tempo appears likely. This should turn the Arc into a thorough test of stamina.

Contender Groups

Established Group 1 stars: Minnie Hauk, Aventure, Sosie.

Japanese challengers: Croix du Nord, Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii.

Progressive 3-year-olds: Cualificar, Daryz, Gezora, Leffard.

Experienced outsiders: Los Angeles, White Birch, Giavellotto.

Bottom line

The 2025 Arc promises an extraordinary clash of Classic winners, seasoned champions, and Japan’s most formidable team yet. With stamina, ground, and tactics all in play, the race seems poised to add another unforgettable chapter to Longchamp’s century-long saga. Aventure stands as the safest choice, but Minnie Hauk and Japan’s challengers could rewrite history. Whatever the outcome, this Arc will reinforce why the race remains racing’s ultimate monument.

---

Enjoyed this preview?

If you’ve found this Arc 2025 preview insightful, I’d love your support - please share it with fellow racing fans and follow me on X @archieb100 for more updates, race analysis, and reflections throughout the season. Your feedback and interaction will help shape future previews and keep this series growing. Don’t forget to leave a comment at the bottom of the page with your pick for who will win the Arc, and leave a rating to let me know what you thought of this piece.