The 2026 Saudi Cup: A Preview of the World’s Richest Race
- Archie Brookes
- 6 hours ago
- 16 min read
By Archie Brookes (@abracing0)
As the international horse racing calendar pivots toward the Arabian Peninsula, the seventh renewal of the Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh stands as the definitive intersection of financial ambition and athletic excellence. Scheduled for Saturday, 14th February, the $20 million centrepiece is the anchor of a weekend offering over $39.6 million in total purses, drawing the elite of the global equine population to the high-stakes sands of Riyadh. This event has rapidly evolved from a lucrative experiment into a cornerstone of the global racing circuit, effectively shifting the sport’s gravitational centre and challenging the historical dominance of Kentucky and Newmarket.
The Technical Edge: A "Kind" Surface
Unlike the deep, punishing sands of North American circuits, the Riyadh track is celebrated for its unique wood-fibre and sand blend. This composition, featuring organic elements like wood bark, creates a "fast but fair" environment with significantly reduced kickback. The material acts as a buffer for moisture - absorbing it when damp and releasing it when dry - which prevents the surface from "balling up" or becoming overly compacted. Jockeys frequently describe it as a "kind" surface that doesn't "beat a horse down," allowing athletes to recover more quickly from the exertion of a Group 1 contest.
The 1800-metre configuration is a one-turn oval, a layout that discourages the tactical "lulls" seen in two-turn American races. This profile demands a specific athletic profile: horses with high cruising speed capable of maintaining a relentless tempo. The absence of a second turn means there is no opportunity to take a breather, turning the race into a sustained sprint from the gates to the wire.
The 2026 Contenders: A Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Forever Young: The Defending King and Global Gold Standard
The 2025 Japanese Horse of the Year returns as the undisputed gold standard of global dirt racing, representing a revolutionary shift in the nation's breeding programme. Bred by Northern Farm, the son of Real Steel was purchased for ¥98,000,000 by tech mogul Susumu Fujita - a price tag that now looks like a bargain given his ascent. Following an undefeated two-year-old season in Japan, he gained global fame in 2024 by capturing the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby before a heroic, narrow third in a three-way photo finish in the 150th Kentucky Derby. Relive the historic stretch duel below.
Trained by the legendary Yoshito Yahagi and ridden in every start by Ryusei Sakai, Forever Young reached the pinnacle of the sport in last year’s Saudi Cup with a performance for the ages (below). Breaking from the daunting outside post in stall 14, Sakai expertly navigated the wide draw to track a blistering early tempo. The race transformed into a cinematic duel as the Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior surged to the front at the top of the straight, looking certain to steal the prize. However, Forever Young demonstrated his trademark "never-say-die" attitude, relentlessly clawing back the deficit in the final furlong to win by a neck in a stakes-record time of 1:49.09.
In doing so, he became the first horse to ever complete the Saudi Derby-Saudi Cup double. His historic 2025 campaign later culminated in a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar (below), making him the first Japanese-trained horse to win the event and shattering the "dirt ceiling" that previously limited Japan's global success to turf. With 10 wins from 13 starts and career earnings exceeding US$19 million, he stands as the highest-earning Japanese horse of all time. Beyond the track, he has become a cultural phenomenon, bridging the gap between traditional racing and a new generation of fans.
This weekend's title defence is merely the first leg of an ambitious Middle Eastern campaign, as connections have confirmed he will head to the UAE to contest the Dubai World Cup following his Riyadh engagement - a race in which he finished a gallant third last year following his triumph in Saudi Arabia. Given his flawless record on this surface and his unmatched tactical resilience, I simply cannot see anything beating him; he is the definitive horse to beat and will be very, very tough to overcome. His grinding style is perfectly calibrated for this track, and if he defends his title, he will cement his legacy as a true generational talent.
Nysos: The Baffert Vanguard and Tactical Counter-Strike
Possessing "speed-of-the-speed" tactical gear, Nysos is a son of Nyquist, originally a $550,000 purchase at the two-year-olds in training sale. Trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Bob Baffert, he has been targeted specifically for this mission by a team hungry for its first Saudi Cup victory. Following a dominant win in last year’s Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - where he nosed out stablemate Citizen Bull in a photo finish (below) - Nysos solidified his standing as a premier miler in North America.
His journey to Riyadh has been one of immense resilience; after winning his first three starts by a combined 26 lengths, a minor injury forced a 15-month layoff that saw him bypass the 2024 Triple Crown. This extended absence means he arrives in Riyadh as an exceptionally lightly raced five-year-old. Having contested just eight career starts, this many-mileage on the clock is a significant asset, providing him with the fresh legs and raw brilliance often missing from battle-worn veterans. Since returning in early 2025, he has amassed a remarkable record of seven wins from those eight outings, including a recent gritty score in the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes. Now partially leased to the international powerhouse Coolmore, Nysos brings a profile of unspent potential.
To be ridden by Flavien Prat, his ability to sit just off a hot pace and strike entering the long straight makes him the primary tactical counter to Forever Young’s late-charging style. This contest will be a definitive test of which "fresh" profile prevails: the raw, lightly raced brilliance of Nysos, or the proven, top-level resilience of a secondary defending champion who, like his challenger, has been specifically freshened since his exploits late last year.
Nevada Beach: The Relentless Galloper and California Challenger
Bob Baffert describes Nevada Beach as a "big, long-jumping horse" reminiscent of the stable's former star Country Grammer. Acquired for $260,000 as a yearling at the 2023 Keeneland September Sale, he has proven to be an astute investment for his connections. He commenced his competitive career as a three-year-old in April last year, winning on debut at Santa Anita before establishing himself as a top-class performer with a victory in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby. His premier triumph to date came in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes (below), where he successfully tackled older horses and defeated the favoured Full Serrano.
While he finished unplaced in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar, he quickly regained his form with a victory in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes and concluded his three-year-old season with a narrow second-place finish in the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes, where he was narrowly beaten by his stablemate and fellow Saudi Cup contender, Nysos. Boasting a remarkably consistent career record of four wins and two seconds from just seven starts, his unexposed profile is strikingly similar to that of Nysos, suggesting significant room for further progression. His stamina profile is his greatest asset; while he may lack the initial explosive zip of his stablemate, he is a relentless galloper expected to be doing his best work in the final 200 metres. Having handled the long journey from California with professional ease, he remains a major threat if the early pace is contested, as his immense lung capacity allows he outstay purely speed-oriented rivals on this demanding Riyadh surface.
Ameerat Alzamaan: The Desert Rose and Local Track Specialist
A daughter of emerging turf sire Ghaiyyath, Ameerat Alzamaan has established herself as a premier competitor in Saudi Arabian horse racing for trainer Sami Alharabi. Her career is notably distinguished by her status as the first classic winner for her sire, achieving this milestone with a dominant victory in the Saudi 1,000 Guineas (below) in January 2025, quickly followed by a prestigious win in the Fillies Mile. Boasting an impressive record of seven wins from nine career starts, she has become a Riyadh favourite by winning with visual ease, most recently securing the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Cup in December.
Supplemented for this race after finishing as a gallant runner-up in the Group 3 Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup last month - where she was beaten by just three-quarters of a length by fellow contender Mhally - she acts as a true track specialist who has trained exclusively on the Riyadh wood-fibre blend. Regarded as a versatile athlete particularly effective over distances between 1,800 and 2,000 metres, she avoids the stress of intercontinental travel that can often dull the performance of international visitors.
While she is undoubtedly a talented performer, in my view, she will have to find a significant amount of improvement if she is to match the world-class level displayed by Forever Young. Her trainer believes she has improved significantly since her classic campaign, transitioning into a robust middle-distance threat whose perfect acclimatisation to the King Abdulaziz Racecourse makes her a dangerous underdog on her home track.
Star of Wonder: The Transatlantic Bridge and Domestic Hope
Unbeaten in two starts since moving from the Brad Cox stable in the US to Riyadh under the care of Saad Aljenade, Star of Wonder possesses the class of an American graded winner with the benefit of complete local acclimatisation. Initially campaigned for Siena Farm and WinStar Farm, he showed early brilliance with a maiden victory at Churchill Downs followed by wins at Aqueduct and Keeneland, eventually finishing third in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special Stakes in May 2025.
Following a $325,000 acquisition by KAS Stables at the Fasig-Tipton July sale, the colt was relocated to Saudi Arabia where he quickly justified the investment. His victory in the Listed King Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Cup in December (above) was nothing short of dominant, exhibiting a high cruising speed that neutralises local opposition. Now boasting six wins from eight career starts, he represents the strongest domestic hope in the race's history to keep the trophy within the Kingdom, acting as a bridge between elite American genetics and Saudi training prowess.
Bishops Bay: The Middle-Distance Threat and Sovereign Acquisition
Recently established as the most expensive horse ever sold at the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale, Bishops Bay fetched $1.3 million from Saudi-based KAS Stables, marking him as a major sovereign acquisition for the 2026 renewal. Still under the guidance of Brad Cox, he enters the Saudi Cup as a remarkably consistent and "honest" competitor, boasting an impressive career record of nine wins and three second-place finishes from thirteen starts.
His journey to the global stage began with a promising three-year-old campaign in 2023, where he narrowly lost the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes to future Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo, a performance that hinted at his world-class potential. Following a stellar five-year-old season in 2025 - which saw him capture a string of victories in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes, the Salvator Mile, and the Forty Niner Stakes - he reached a new peak in December. Fighting gamely to win the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct (below), he recorded a lifetime-best Beyer Speed Figure of 107.
However, questions remain regarding his ability to handle elite-level pressure; his only previous test in Grade 1 company came in last year's Forego Stakes, where he was soundly beaten into sixth place. Despite that setback, his tactical versatility and familiarity with the 1600-metre to 1800-metre range make him a formidable threat in a one-turn configuration where high tempo is at a premium.
Mhally: The Proven Qualifier and Riyadh Veteran
Mhally is recognised as one of the most successful graduates of the Saudi qualifying series, earning an automatic spot for trainer Abdullah Alsidrani by winning the key local qualifier, the Grade 3 Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup in January (below). In a performance that highlighted his local dominance, the gelding fended off the challenge of the aforementioned Ameerat Alzamaan by three-quarters of a length. Under the guidance of jockey Ricardo Ferreira, he demonstrated a professional display of stamina to secure that victory, further solidifying his reputation for grit on dirt surfaces.
His rise to prominence began last year, where he first garnered international attention by winning the Saudi 2000 Guineas before securing a gritty third-place finish in the Group 3 Saudi Derby later that season. A veteran of the Riyadh circuit who has shown consistent improvement with every season of maturity, Mhally now boasts a record of seven wins from sixteen starts, with career earnings exceeding SAR 1.75 million.
Whilst he is clearly a horse on the upward curve, in my view, he still has to improve a lot to reach the level of Forever Young. Nevertheless, his extensive experience in major local features gives him a distinct tactical edge in navigating the large 14-runner field, as he knows precisely when to make his move on the long, sweeping turn of the King Abdulaziz Racecourse.
Luxor Cafe: The Blue-Blooded Globetrotter and Pedigree Powerhouse
Part of the "Rising Sun" contingent, Luxor Cafe is an elite Kentucky-bred son of the 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah out of the prolific producer Mary’s Follies. This blue-blooded pedigree makes him a full brother to the dual Group 1 February Stakes winner Cafe Pharoah and a half-brother to the American champion female turf horse Regal Glory. Trained in Japan by Noriyuki Hori for owner Koichi Nishikawa, he arrives in Riyadh with a career record of five wins, one second, and one third from ten starts.
His journey began with a developmental two-year-old campaign in 2024, finishing fourth on debut and second at Sapporo before breaking his maiden over a mile at Tokyo in November. He opened his 2025 three-year-old season with a dominant winning streak, capturing the Kurochiku Sho at Nakayama in January and the Listed Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo in February, before a five-length triumph in the Fukuryu Stakes in March to secure an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. Although his "Run for the Roses" ended in a disappointing 12th-place finish due to a stumble at the start on a sloppy track, he proved his class later that year by placing third in the Jpn1 Japan Dirt Classic at Ohi. He regained winning form in November by capturing the Grade 3 Musashino Stakes at Tokyo under Damian Lane (below), though his most recent outing in December saw him finish 15th in the Group 1 Champions Cup after drawing the widest post in stall sixteen.
Reunited with jockey João Moreira, Luxor Cafe benefits from the high-velocity Japanese training regimens which translate exceptionally well to the wood-fibre surface of King Abdulaziz Racecourse. He arrives at peak fitness following a key piece of work on Tuesday, where he tracked stablemate Struve over five furlongs and finished smoothly on level terms. Assistant trainer Suzurai reports that the colt has settled well and overcome some initial nerves since his arrival. This marks his second major international venture after his 2025 Kentucky Derby bid, and the stable draws optimistic parallels to his full brother, Cafe Pharoah, who finished third in this event in 2023. Viewed as the "Tier 2" challenger that often provides the best value in Riyadh, he looks to further his family's prestigious legacy on the international stage this Saturday.
Sunrise Zipangu: The Versatile History Maker
Sunrise Zipangu represents a historical milestone for the event, as Kyoko Maekawa becomes the first Japanese female trainer to field a runner in the Saudi Cup. Maekawa made history in 2025 as the first woman to hold a JRA training licence, taking over the stable following the retirement of veteran Hidetaka Otonashi. Owned by Life House Co, the horse is widely recognised in Japanese racing for his exceptional versatility across both turf and dirt surfaces, recording five victories and six placings from 20 career starts, with earnings exceeding 341 million Yen.
His major successes include wins in the 2024 Group 3 Miyako Stakes and the 2025 Jpn2 Nagoya Grand Prix, alongside high-level performances such as a second-place finish in the 2025 Group 1 February Stakes and a third in the 2023 Group 1 Hopeful Stakes. Sunrise Zipangu has consistently proven his stamina in elite company, most recently finishing a creditable fifth in the 2,500m Group 1 Arima Kinen on turf in December (below), where he ran on very strongly from last place turning into the home straight.
As he prepares for his first international campaign in Riyadh, his tactical speed and demonstrated preference for anti-clockwise dirt tracks make him a significant contender. He displays the typical resilience of the Japanese squad, and his ability to maintain a steady, high-velocity gallop makes him a prime candidate to hit the frame if the front-runners tire in the final furlong. In my view, he is overpriced at 25/1 and could easily outrun those odds given his versatility and massive engine.
Rattle N Roll: The Battle-Hardened Veteran and Persistent Closer
A battle-hardened veteran of the American circuit, Rattle N Roll returns for trainer Kenny McPeek for another attempt at Riyadh glory after a fifth-place finish in last year’s renewal. His breakout performance came as a two-year-old when he secured a dominant victory in the 2021 Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, though a minor injury subsequently sidelined him from that year's Breeders' Cup. Standing out for his durability and consistent competitive spirit, he enjoyed a prolific four-year-old campaign in 2023, capturing a hat-trick of Grade 3 victories in the Ben Ali Stakes (below), Pimlico Special, and Blame Stakes, before finishing a strong second in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.
Throughout his career, Rattle N Roll has earned over $1.7 million in prize money, characterised by a signature running style that requires him to navigate through traffic from the back of the pack, making him a fan favourite for his dramatic finishes in the handicap division. His previous experience at the King Abdulaziz Racecourse is a significant logistical advantage, as he is already familiar with the unique surroundings and 'kind' surface. However, now a seven-year-old, there are lingering doubts as to whether he has improved since his second-place finish last year, with some analysts suggesting he may have regressed slightly.
He remains a sustained closer who requires a fast early tempo to be effective, but he will need to prove he still retains the requisite brilliance to reach the podium against the younger, 'fresher' profiles at the head of the market.
Haqeet: The King Saud Cup Hero and Local Stalwart
Representing the White Stable of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Sons, Haqeet has established himself as a high-calibre performer on the Saudi dirt circuit. Currently trained by Saad Aljenade, the gelding has built a solid reputation for consistency, recording five victories from eleven career starts with total earnings exceeding SAR 1.029,000. His career highlights include a dominant win in the 2024 Taif Derby and a standout triumph in last year’s Listed King Saud Cup over 2000m at Riyadh (below), where he showcased his staying power by winning by over four lengths.
Whilst he arrives in the Saudi Cup following a seventh-place finish in the King Abdulaziz Racecourse Champion Stakes in January - a race won by his fellow 2026 contender Thundersquall - he remains a prominent figure in the local scene. He benefits from total acclimatisation to the Riyadh climate and the unique requirements of the home surface. Although he may lack the international 'star power' of the Breeders' Cup champions at the head of the market, his intimate knowledge of the track and proven grit in competitive fields make him a live candidate to snatch a share of the prize money if the overseas visitors fail to adapt.
Banishing: The Resurgent Powerhouse and North American Force
Representing the US contingent for trainer David Jacobson, Banishing is a horse whose career underwent a remarkable transformation after 2023. He first gained international attention with an explosive maiden victory at Fair Grounds in late 2022, but it was his evolution into a top-tier graded stakes performer under the ownership of Larry Roman that redefined his profile.
Following a period of inconsistency as a three-year-old, Banishing emerged as a millionaire athlete in 2025. His most significant results highlight this elite shift, most notably his commanding victory in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic in August (above), where he secured a major win following a powerful late rally. Earlier that year, he captured the Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile and the Jeff Hall Memorial Stakes, while also finishing a gritty second in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes. Although he suffered a disappointing twelfth-place finish in last year’s Breeders' Cup Sprint, he has remained consistent in high-level company, most recently finishing sixth in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Iast month.
Arriving in Riyadh as a battle-tested six-year-old, his success will likely hinge on his ability to clear a deep field early without expending too much energy - a difficult task given the depth of speed in this renewal, but one his high tactical gear is naturally suited for if he can rediscover his peak 2025 form.
Thundersquall: The Godolphin Export and Heritage Challenger
Trained by Muteb Almulawah - the same conditioner who guided the 50/1 longshot Emblem Road to a shock victory in 2022 - Thundersquall is a high-level local performer who began his career in the United Kingdom under the Godolphin banner for trainer Charlie Appleby. Since being transferred to Almulawah’s Riyadh stable, the gelding has demonstrated a particular affinity for the dirt surface at King Abdulaziz Racecourse, especially over the 2000-metre distance.
Thundersquall boasts a solid record of six victories from twenty career starts, reflecting a season of tactical peaks and stable transitions. His 2025 campaign included a notable win in a Listed Open race in March and a dominant three-length victory in a 2000-metre Open race on 29th November. However, his most defining stretch began on 27th December, the day he joined Muteb Almulawah’s yard following a sixth-place effort in a Listed Cup. After a fourth-place finish in the Group 3 Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup on 17th January - where he was beaten by five and a quarter lengths over 1800 metres - he returned to his optimal 2000-metre trip on 30 January. In that career-best performance, he secured a major victory in the Listed King Abdulaziz Racecourse Championship Stakes, earning approximately SAR 637,250 and propelling himself into the Saudi Cup spotlight (below).
He possesses the "local edge" that has historically seen outsiders outperform expectations, and his stamina profile makes him a threat if the early pace collapses.
Tumbarumba: The Wathnan Acquisition and Gulf Ambassador
Representing Qatar for trainer Hamad Al Jehani, Tumbarumba brings vital regional diversity to the field and highlights the burgeoning competitiveness of the Gulf racing scene. Originally purchased and trained by Brian Lynch before being campaigned by Amerman Racing Stables, the gelding was later acquired by the powerhouse Wathnan Racing. As of early this year, he has compiled a remarkably consistent record of seven wins, eight seconds, and four thirds from 27 career starts, with total earnings exceeding $1,210,000.
His most significant victories include the 2024 Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes and the 2025 Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes, alongside a notable win in the 2023 Ellis Park Derby. A frequent contender in elite international company, he finished a strong fourth in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar. Most recently, he demonstrated his high calibre by finishing second in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan last month (above), further cementing his reputation as a durable performer at the highest level. His presence adds another layer of regional rivalry to the event, as he looks to prove that Qatar can compete with the racing giants of Japan, the US, and Saudi Arabia on the world's richest stage.
Conclusion
The 2026 Saudi Cup represents the ultimate test of global thoroughbred resilience, challenging athletes to peak after gruelling intercontinental journeys and acclimatise to the unique Riyadh conditions. The collision between a defending Japanese legend in Forever Young and a meticulously prepared American vanguard sets the stage for a race that will define the global dirt-racing hierarchy for the remainder of the decade. This is not merely a contest of speed, but a sophisticated tactical chess match between the avant-garde training philosophies of the East and the established, high-velocity power of the West.
In my assessment, Forever Young is the definitive selection to win and remains my primary pick for the race. His tactical versatility, combined with his proven affinity for the King Abdulaziz surface, makes it extremely likely that he will secure a historic back-to-back victory. He possesses a grinding gear that few in this field can match, particularly in the final 200 metres when the wood-fibre surface begins to sap the reserves of his rivals. Should he succeed, he will not only cement his immortality but also confirm Japan’s status as one of new superpower of global dirt racing.
However, for those looking for a strategic alternative or a secondary play, Sunrise Zipangu presents an intriguing value proposition. Currently overpriced at 25/1, he appears to be the "forgotten" member of the Japanese squad despite a racing profile that suggests he is perfectly suited for this one-turn layout. His exceptional turn of foot shown in the Arima Kinen indicates that he can pick up the pieces should a suicidal pace develop upfront, making him a premier each-way bet for the weekend.
Whether the favourite defends his crown or a dark horse provides a shock to the system, the result will reverberate through the bloodstock markets of Kentucky, Hokkaido, and beyond. This race serves as the primary qualifier for the Dubai World Cup next month, meaning the stakes extend far beyond the immediate $20 million purse.
As the gates fly open, Riyadh presents itself as a region firmly on the rise; whilst it may not yet be the definitive apex of the global circuit, its accelerating growth ensures that the sport’s gravitational centre is steadily shifting toward the Arabian sands.