The Fast Lane: Weekend Preview
- Archie Brookes
- Aug 23
- 14 min read
Niigata / Chukyo / Sapporo - 23rd & 24th August
The summer stretch heats up as the JRA rolls into another stacked weekend of graded-
stakes action. From seasoned Group 1 winners making their seasonal returns to rising two-year-old stars looking to stamp early authority, the stage is set across Niigata, Chukyo, and Sapporo. Big names, high stakes, and future targets on the line - this is racing in the fast lane.
This week’s racing takes us to Niigata, Chukyo and Sapporo, with the Group 3 Keeneland Cup headlining the action. Group 1 NHK Mile Cup winner Panja Tower returns for the first time since his victory in May and bids to become just the second Group 1 winner to take the Keeneland Cup. Nine JRA Group 1 winners have tried before with just Robe Tissage winning in 2014. This should serve as a good prep for the Shinsuke Hashiguchi-trained colt before he goes down under to tackle the $10m Golden Eagle at Randwick in November.
The Group 3 Niigata Nisai Stakes is the feature of the weekend at Niigata. Just the second two-year-old graded-stakes race of the year, Takahisa Tezuka’s Realize Sirius is the likely favourite after a seven-length demolition job at Tokyo in June. He could become a first-crop graded-stakes winner for Irish-imported stallion Poetic Flare.
Group 3 Niigata Nisai Stakes - 2yo, Niigata 1600m, Turf, Post time: 15:45 JST (07:45 BST)
The set-up: steady early, explode late
Niigata’s outer mile is a one-turn test with about 550m to the first bend and a ~659m flat home straight - the longest in Japan. That layout often produces a steady early tempo into a sharp last 3f, so the best finishing speed (L3F) usually wins the day.
Going / weather: Hot, humid, mostly sunny - classic Niigata summer. Expect firm/fast unless the track is watered aggressively.
Why it matters
This race keeps throwing up proper horses. Serifos (2021) graduated to win the G1 Mile Championship; Ascoli Piceno (2023) became champion filly and later took the G1 Victoria Mile; Harp Star (2013) won the Oka Sho. Even last year’s winner Total Clarity (2024) turned up for the big 2yo dances. The message: strong 2yo milers announce themselves here.
Shape & pace map
Leader: 9 Realize Sirius
On-pace: 4 Festival Hill, 8 Saint Antoine
Back-markers: 2 Rinen Tairin, 6 Photon Geyser. Overall tempo flagged steady → late acceleration. On this track, pure leaders underperform; on-speed at a price can pinch a place, but closers with a 33-low L3F profile are king.
Runner-by-runner
1 - Mese | Ridden by Kazuki Kikuzawa | Trained by Takanori Kikuzawa | 2yo filly by Disco Partner x Marquet Legacy (Gio Ponti)
A debut winner at Fukushima over 1200m (1:09.7, L3F 35.0). Sat in third coming round the home turn and got up in the dying strides to beat long-time leader Iikuni Passion by a head - who has since disappointed, finishing 8th over Niigata's straight 1000m.
Takes a big step up in class here and tackles the extra 400m. The rail helps, but the trip is a query. Most likely sits midfield.
2 - Rinen Tairin | Ridden by Daichi Shibata | Trained by Michio Minamida | 2yo colt by Kizuna x Rinen Puzzle (Paradise Creek)
Another debut winner over Fukushima's 1200m. Raced handily before taking it up in the home straight to pull away for a cosy 1 3/4 length win.
Stepped up to the open class Dahlia Sho here over 1400m two weeks ago, sent off a 27.6 poke, he sat in the back-half of the field and met with a lot of traffic when making his challenge in the straight, eventually running on for 6th.
Honest speed, better with a lead to chase. Exotics if the pace collapses.
3 - Taisei Vogue | Ridden by Kanta Taguchi | Trained by Takeshi Matsushita | 2yo filly by Indy Champ x Viyadana (Azamour)
1400m debut winner at Hanshin in June, sat fourth and picked up well to score by a head. Stepped up to the Dahlia Sho earlier this month, she sat dead-last and made her move round the home bend, responding well to Taguchi's urges, just unable to pick up the winner but ran on for a very creditable 2nd in the circumstances.
Rock-solid 1400m form; if she stays the mile as her debut hinted, she’s a benchmark filly.
4 - Festival Hill | Ridden by Osamu Ishibashi | Trained by Hirofumi Shii | 2yo filly by Saturnalia x Museum Hill (Heart's Cry)
Debuted over 1600m at Hanshin, settled nicely, ran green in the straight but picked up nicely for Ryusei Sakai with minimal asking to score by a 1/2 length. 2nd placed filly that day Arbanne, won impressively next time out.
This half-sister to G1 Satsuki Sho winner Museum Mile should land handy and kick. First run away from Hanshin, but the profile screams right spot/right race.
5 - Hildegrim | Ridden by Yukito Ishikawa | Trained by Jiro Ono | 2yo filly by Gold Ship x Naglering (Red Spada)
A shock debut winner over course and distance when sent off at 69.5. Met with plenty of traffic but found an opening down the middle of the track and flew from 200m out for a 2 1/2 length win.
The Niigata outer straight is basically built for that stalk & pounce pattern and she could run well.
6 - Photon Geyser | Ridden by Takuya Kowata | Trained by Koji Maki | 2yo colt by Admire Mars x Meine Nonno (Taiki Shuttle)
This colt has already ran four times since June, eventually breaking his maiden third time out over 1200m at Fukushima.
Pitched into the Dahlia Sho but couldn't pick up from a good position.
By Admire Mars but still has to prove stamina at 1600m. Needs a draft and a big new peak.
7 - Sanono Greater | Ridden by Ryuto Yokoyama | Trained by Kazuyuki Ogata | 2yo colt by Greater London x Meme Kuzariana (Jungle Pocket)
Tokyo 1600m debut winner back in June, sat in the final third of the field and ran on powerfully in the final stages, recorded a very good time of 22.6s in the last 400m.
Inexpensive Hokkaido Sale ¥4.84m grad, looks a scopey improver. Could be the value closer if they crawl.
8 - Saint Antoine | Ridden by Mirai Iwata | Trained by Yuichi Shikato | 2yo filly by Drefong x Sentir (Harbinger)
Professional Tokyo 1400m debut win in June, sat handy under Damian Lane and travelled very powerfully, responded well to Lane's urgings to pull away for a four length win.
If she settles from a forward spot, she’ll travel long enough to be dangerous late. Great chance.
9 - Realize Sirius | Ridden by Akihide Tsumura | Trained by Takahisa Tezuka | 2yo colt by Poetic Flare x Red Mirabel (Stay Gold)
Made a very smart debut over Tokyo's 1600m in June. Rousted along to lead early and travelled with ease, eventually pulled away for a seven length win whilst never being asked much. Recorded a speed figure of 92 in the process. Fourth-placed Satono Wagner followed up next time out at Fukushima.
Big, forward grey (512kg) and the projected leader here. By Poetic Flare (first crop) - could hand the Irish miler his first JRA graded winner. The question isn’t speed; it’s how hard he has to work through the final 300m.
10 - Taisei Fresa | Ridden by Arata Saito | Trained by Makoto Saito | 2yo filly by Kizuna x Kathy's Song (Candy Ride)
Took three tries for her to break her maiden, eventually winning over Niigata's 1400m last time out on softer ground. Sat in the front half of the field and showed a nice turn of foot in the conditions, winning by 3/4 of a length.
Outside gate gives options to ride quietly for a late slice.
Trends to know (10–15 renewals)
Finishing speed rules: Prior-start top-2 L3F types dominate the placings.
Leaders underperform: Pure front-running is a tough gig down the 659m straight.
Draw: Outer frames trend well on Niigata T1600 (outer).
Market: Winners often come from the top three in betting, but shocks happen - Total Clarity scored in 2024 as the 6th fav.
Times guide: Good ground typically 1:33 - 1:34; slower if they dawdle.
Verdict
Main Dangers:
Festival Hill
Why she can win: Already a mile winner; maps to land 2-3 back stalking, which is the sweet spot on Niigata’s outer mile. She quickened despite greenness on debut and her page screams miler.
Set-up that helps: Steady early fractions into a 33-low last 3f - she gets first crack at the leader.
Risks: First trip away from Hanshin; if the pace backs right off and she’s pocketed, her run could be delayed.
Realize Sirius
Why he can win: Classy Tokyo-mile debut, big frame, natural speed; most likely leader and could control an even tempo. If he dials it back mid-race he’s hard to reel in.
Set-up that helps: Soft leads and 12-second mid-race splits; anything that turns the last 600m into a sustained grind rather than a dash.
Risks: Niigata’s 659m straight is brutal on pure leaders; any early pressure increases late vulnerability.
Saint Antoine
Why she can win (and at a price): Professional Tokyo 1400m debut with authority; travels, relaxes, and can quicken - ideal for Niigata’s long lane. Draw 8 keeps her in clean air to stalk and pounce.
Set-up that helps: Steady/controlled first 1000m then a true sprint home - she has the gears to sit on the leader and kick past or fend off closers.
Risks: First try at 1600m; must settle early. Needs a clear run turning in - caught in a duel too soon, she could empty late.
Group 3 Keeneland Cup - 3yo+, Sapporo 1200m, Turf, Post time: 15:35 JST (07:35 BST)
The set-up: press early, kick off the bend
Sapporo’s 1200m is a tight, right-handed spin with a short ~266-269m home straight. With so little lane to work with, being in the first 6–8 turning for home is a real edge; cornering and track craft matter more than raw top speed. If leaders breathe mid-race, they can lock it down from the 400m.
Why it matters
Direct Sprinters Stakes pipeline: This is an official trial - win and you get priority entry to the Sprinters Stakes (G1) at Nakayama. It’s also Leg 5 of the Summer Sprint Series.
Autumn positioning: Camps use this as a read on where to aim next. Headliner Panja Tower (2025 NHK Mile Cup winner) is sharpening over 6f with an overseas tilt in mind.
Local form lines converge: The key Hokkaido preps - Seikan Stakes (Hakodate 1200m) and UHB Sho (Sapporo 1200m) - feed straight in; several here exit those races.
Shape & pace map
Overall tempo projected medium. If the three pace horses trade early jabs, the stalkers - Panja Tower/Kvasir/Morino Dream - shape well. If they stack them up, the front rank can keep it tight. Wide lanes have been fine historically; weight early position more than raw closing splits.
Runner-by-runner
1 - Twinkle Toes | Ridden by Yoshihiro Furukawa | Trained by Koji Maki | 5yo mare by Mind Your Biscuits x Twinkle Star (Sakura Bakushin O)
Won the three-win Yodoyabashi Stakes at Hanshin in March but winless since. Close up in last three, finished last in the UHB Sho here two weeks ago but not beaten far.
Handles the Hokkaido summer well and arrives rock-fit into a similar set-up.
Strong closer with proven course/trip - live late player if they overcook it up front.
2 - Etes Vous Prets | Ridden by Yuji Tannai | Trained by Kenichi Fujioka | 4yo mare by Too Darn Hot x Nahoodh (Clodovil)
Too Darn Hot mare who’s been chipping away in summer sprints; typically settles midfield and runs on. First run back after a long break, not been seen since finishing 12th in the G3 Aichi Hai in March. Hasn't won since the G2 Hochi Hai Fillies Revue in March last year.
This would be her second time running in this race, having finished 11th in last year's renewal won by very good sprinter Satono Reve.
Honest and versatile; needs the splits and a new peak to land this.
3 - Rapier | Ridden by Yuichi Kitamura | Trained by Kazuya Nakatake | 3yo colt by Tower of London x Annatorte (Empire Maker)
Speedy Tower of London colt with a progressive profile; has been kept to sprint/mile trips and brings upside against older horses. Has won three from his last four, including the three-win Aizu Stakes at Fukushima in July when sent off a heavy 1.3 favourite. Ground versatile and an exciting prospect.
Untapped 3yo with gears - claims if he relaxes early.
4 - A T Makfi | Ridden by Keita Tosaki | Trained by Hidenori Take | 6yo horse by Makfi x Tenshinramman (Heart's Cry)
Veteran who showed he still has it when winning the open-class Seikan Stakes at Hakodate in June - the first time running on turf since 2022. This will be just his second time in a Group 3 - the last time as a 2yo in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes.
Battle-hardened pace presence - could run well at a price.
5 - Panja Tower | Ridden by Kohei Matsuyama | Trained by Shinsuke Hashiguchi | 3yo colt by Tower of London x Clarksdale (Victoire Pisa)
This year's G1 NHK Mile Cup winner at 26.1, peeling eight-wide round the home bend and just holding on from Magic Sands. He returns from a freshen-up and cuts back to 1200m for the first time since his debut. The $10m Golden Eagle at Randwick is the long-term aim.
The class horse. If he travels and quickens like usual, he could win this on talent.
6 - Pair Pollux | Ridden by Fuma Matsuwaka | Trained by Tomoyuki Umeda | 4yo horse by Kinshasa no Kiseki x Miracle Ask (Deep Impact)
Has been consistent overall in the past year, beaten a 1/2 length in 2nd by Mama Cocha in the G3 Ocean Stakes back in March. Most recently came 3rd behind A T Makfi and Tinia in the Seikan Stakes.
Kinshasa no Kiseki line screams 1200m; consistent type who makes his own luck near the speed.
Forward, genuine, and improving - each-way material in the right lane.
7 - Kvasir | Ridden by Alexis Badel | Trained by Manabu Ikezoe | 5yo horse by Maurice x Gullveig (Deep Impact)
Maurice sprinter with a solid base of sprint/mile form. Won here a year ago over course and distance in the 1st leg of the All-Star Jockeys Series. Came 4th two weeks ago in a bunched finish in the UHB Sho over course and distance, beaten a total of three-nose widths.
Often stalks and grinds on without exploding.
Needs the race to collapse to sneak into the frame; minor money best.
8 - Sonnig | Ridden by Yutaka Take | Trained by Yasutoshi Ikee | 7yo horse by Lovely Day x Endless Knot (Deep Impact)
Miler by background trying to make sprinting stick; struggled in the G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes earlier this summer but retains tactical pace. Form ties in with a lot of these having finished 10th in the UHB Sho earlier this month.
Longshot. Only a perfectly-run race brings him into it.
9 - Morino Dream | Ridden by Christophe Lemaire | Trained by Yuichi Shikato | 6yo mare by Maurice x Gloriette (Admire Moon)
Hokkaido-loving mare with multiple 1200m wins and a neat stalk-and-pounce style; Lemaire up is a plus. Won last year's open-class Shirakaba Stakes but winless since. Another that contested both the Seikan Stakes and UHB Sho in her last two starts. Has ran in this race for two years running, finishing 8th and 12th.
Course specialist vibes - don’t sleep on her for a podium.
10 - Win Carnelian | Ridden by Kousei Miura | Trained by Yuichi Shikato | 8yo horse by Screen Hero x Cosmo Crystal (Meiner Love)
Top-class miler who proved 1200m works when beaten two lengths by A Shin Fencer in the G3 Sekiya Kinen at Kyoto, before a blazing 2nd in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai in April, just 3/4 of a length behind British mare Believing.
Likely on the speed and sticking - major player if the track favours leaders, his fast gate speed will help him.
11 - Purpur Ray | Ridden by Karis Teetan | Trained by Naosuke Sugai | 6yo gelding by Isla Bonita x My Jen (Fusaichi Pegasus)
Blanket 7th in the UHB Sho, prior to a tough trip in the Seikan Stakes and 10th in the G3 Hakodate Sprint. Capable on his day but hasn't won or placed since taking the 2024 renewal of the UHB Sho. Karis Teetan onboard is a positive.
If he sees daylight at the right time, he could burst into the minors.
12 - Fioraia | Ridden by Ryusei Sakai | Trained by Masato Nishizono | 4yo mare by Fine Needle x Fleur City (Sakura Bakushin O)
Arrives off a tight, brave win in the UHB Sho here two weeks ago; strong on Hokkaido’s summer turf and thriving at 1200m. She's ground versatile, having won the Ganryujima Stakes in February on soft ground and Ryusei Sakai has won twice on her before.
Rock-solid current form - clear chance again with a similar trip.
13 - Jo Medvind | Ridden by Masami Matsuoka | Trained by Hisashi Shimizu | 4yo horse by Drefong x Jo Aromat (King Halo)
Graduated to OP class via the Funabashi Stakes (3-win) in March; typically sits just behind the pace and keeps finding. Comes from the same form line as most here - Hakodate Sprint, Seikan Stakes and UHB Sho.
Honest and fit - could stick around for a check if the tempo is fair.
14 - Carro Veloce | Ridden by Daisuke Sasaki | Trained by Naosuke Sugai | 5yo gelding by Silver State x Susana Tosho (Rock of Gibraltar)
Kept sharp over Niigata’s straight 1000m when 4th in the G3 Ibis Summer Dash; back to a turning 1200m suits his on-pace rhythm better. Before that, won the open-class Adatara Stakes at Fukushima.
Dangerous if he lands the front pair without burning petrol - live outsider.
15 - Namura Clara | Ridden by Shun Hamanaka | Trained by Kodai Hasegawa | 3yo filly by Admire Mars x Sun Queen (Storm Cat)
Half-sister to G2 sprint star Namura Clair; won the TVh Hai (3-win) at Hakodate last time after a sustained duel bravely holding off Salt Queen. Light at the weights here (53kg). Previously tried in the G1 Oka Sho (1000 Guineas) but failed to make much of an impact, finishing 13th.
Weight + pedigree + current form = upside. Big shout to hit the frame.
16 - Karpuz Pelus | Ridden by Takeshi Yokoyama | Trained by Koichi Ishizaka | 3yo filly by Cheval Grand x Paronella (Lord Kanaloa)
Arrives on a three-race tear; latest was a smooth TVh Sho win and all four career wins have come on Hokkaido’s summer turf - improving rapidly. Has the outside stall to deal with but armed with the age and sex allowance.
Red-hot 3yo with pace to sit handy - serious winning chance if she steps up again.
Verdict
Main Dangers:
Win Carnelian
Why he can win: Classy, hard-knocking sprinter/miler with rock-solid graded 1200m form (G1 Al Quoz 2nd, G3 Keihan Hai 2nd). Has the gate speed and rhythm to land on the pace at Sapporo.
Set-up that helps: Medium/solid early fractions with no brutal duel - he can control or sit 1–2 back and kick from the bend. I expect him to try and lead.
Risks: If multiple go forward and he’s forced to work from wide spots, his late punch dulls; also an 8yo, and first start since April - small chance a sharp 3yo nabs him late.
Karpuz Pelus
Why she can win: Red-hot 3yo filly on a Hokkaido tear - three straight 1200m wins (HTB Hai → TVh Sho), gets a handy 53kg pull against the elders, and has tractable on-pace speed.
Set-up that helps: Controlled first 600–800m where she can slot 2-3 pairs back without expending energy, then use her light weight to sprint clear.
Risks: First crack at older graded sprinters - if they go absolute warp early she may be forced out of her comfort zone and feel the class pinch late - also has gate 16 to deal with.
Panja Tower
Why he can win: Fresh G1 NHK Mile Cup winner with genuine speed - debuted at 1200m and also won the G2 Keio Hai Nisai at 1400m. First crop by Tower of London (G1 Sprinters Stakes winner) suggests the cut-back to 1200m could be a plus; this is a key trial before his Australian campaign.
Set-up that helps: Controlled first 800m where he can park on-pace without spending - pace projections have him in the first wave stalking the leaders.
Risks: First start since May and first crack at older sprinters - if they go 1:07-low and he over-races, the last 100m could bite.
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Brilliant preview article that dives in to each runner. The way it’s broken down under sub sections makes it really easy to read and digest the information.